S&P 500: A sustained break above 4030 signals a bullish breakout

Emini S&P March – It’s make or break for Emini S&P today as we test:

The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000.

The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012.

The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020.

In overbought conditions.

Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the December high, we have a 61.8% resistance at 4008.


Nasdaq March has recovered 50% of the December loss & closed above the 100 day moving average at 11565.


We have a 3 month bear flag in the Emini Nasdaq as we test the red 200 week moving average resistance.


Emini Dow Jones March.

Daily analysis

Emini S&P March held resistance at  4000/4020. Targets for shorts are 3950/40 & 3900/3890.

A sustained break above 4030 signals a bullish breakout & I have to take this as a medium term buy signal. A minimum 100 point jump would then be expected.

Nasdaq March we wrote: break above 11570 can target 11650/700. A high for the day at 11638, so I was pretty close!! If we continue higher look for 11900/950.

A minor negative candle yesterday but I must wait for a sell signal – no sign of a turn yet, although bulls need prices to hold above 11580/530 to remain in full control. A break below 11500 risks a slide to 11450/400, perhaps as far as 11250.

Emini Dow Jones support at 34100/050 with a bounce to target 34450/500. Further gains can target 34700.

Until we get a sell signal, we can buy at support at 34100/050. Below 34000 however risks a slide to support at 33870/840.

[embedded content]