– By GF Value
The stock of Evolent Health (NYSE:EVH, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $19.68 per share and the market cap of $1.7 billion, Evolent Health stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Evolent Health is shown in the chart below.
Because Evolent Health is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 21.2% over the past five years.
Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Evolent Health has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.96, which is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Healthcare Providers & Services. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Evolent Health at 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Evolent Health is poor. This is the debt and cash of Evolent Health over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Evolent Health has been profitable 2 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $1 billion and loss of $3.92 a share. Its operating margin is -4.98%, which ranks worse than 72% of the companies in the industry of Healthcare Providers & Services. Overall, the profitability of Evolent Health is ranked 3 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Evolent Health over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Evolent Health is 21.2%, which ranks better than 84% of the companies in the industry of Healthcare Providers & Services. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -66.9%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Healthcare Providers & Services.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Evolent Health’s return on invested capital is -4.17, and its cost of capital is 15.34. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Evolent Health is shown below:
In closing, Evolent Health (NYSE:EVH, 30-year Financials) stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is poor and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Healthcare Providers & Services. To learn more about Evolent Health stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.